South Scotland

South Scotland contains the “blue wall”  along the border, in recent years, the Conservatives have enjoyed good results here and now Reform will be hoping to make gains. South Scotland has seen a significant boundary change since 2021: East Lothian has gone and two central belt seats – East Kilbride and Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse – are in. The latter are relatively urban seats in a largely rural region and more likely to lean SNP/Labour.

Ayr

  • Siobhian Brown – Scottish National Party (SNP)
  • Desmond Buchanan – Liberal Democrats
  • Sharon Dowey – Conservative and Unionist Party
  • Brian McGinley – Labour Party
  • Andrew Fleming Russell – Reform UK
  • Denise Sommerville – Independent
  • Muhammad Tufail – Scottish Common Party

Brown had several car crash interviews over hate crime and was ill-equipped to fill the ministerial shoes of Ash Regan. She was handed the poisoned chalice brief of objecting to the “Unbuyable” Prostitution Bill. Brown took Ayr with a wafer thin majority over John Scott (battling health issues) in 2021. The conservatives could retake it  if Reform don’t spoil the party.

Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley

  • Jack Clark – Liberal Democrats
  • Tracey Clark – Conservative and Unionist Party
  • Sean Davis – Independent
  • Katie Hagmann – Scottish National Party (SNP)
  • Alison Hewett – Independent
  • Carol Ann Mochan – Labour Party
  • Andrew Scott – Reform UK

Labour are the stronger rivals to SNP in this seat, which is losing MSP Elena Whitham. Labour’s Carol Mochan voted against the GRR and is a thoughtful advocate for wider women’s rights with a special interest in women’s health.

Clydesdale

  • Richard John Brodie – Liberal Democrats
  • Dan Clarke – Reform UK
  • Lynsey Hamilton – Labour Party
  • Mairi McAllan – Scottish National Party (SNP)
  • Julie Pirone – Conservative and Unionist Party

McAllan should keep her seat – mainly because Lab/Tory/Reform are set to split the vote fairly evenly.

Dumfriesshire

  • Paul Adkins – Scottish Common Party
  • Linda Jane Dorward – Labour Party
  • Craig Hoy – Conservative and Unionist Party
  • David Kirkwood – Reform UK
  • Iain William McDonald – Liberal Democrats
  • Stephen Thompson – Scottish National Party (SNP)

Oliver Mundell is standing down, but his seat should be a hold for Conservative Hoy who served via the list in the last session.

East Kilbride

  • Leigh Butler – Liberal Democrats
  • Joe Fagan – Labour Party
  • Kristofer Keane – Independent
  • Tim Kelly – Reform UK
  • Collette Stevenson – Scottish National Party (SNP)
  • Brian Whittle – Conservative and Unionist Party

One of the new additions to South Scotland. Collette Stevenson should keep her seat ahead of Labour.

Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire

  • James Robert Anderson – Independent
  • Ray Georgeson – Liberal Democrats
  • Rachael Hamilton – Conservative and Unionist Party
  • Terry Howson – Alliance to Liberate Scotland
  • Kaymarie Hughes – Labour Party
  • Jamie Alexander Langan – Reform UK
  • John Redpath – Scottish National Party (SNP)

Rachael Hamilton, the Scottish Tories deputy leader, had over 50% vote share at the last election but the SNP are said to be making up ground. Rachael’s been a great ally in the last session – we need her back!

Galloway and West Dumfries

  • Senga Beresford – Reform UK
  • Finlay Carson – Conservative and Unionist Party
  • Emma Harper – Scottish National Party (SNP)
  • Jack McConnel – Labour Party
  • Tracey Warman – Liberal Democrats

Finlay Carson has also enjoyed a solid majority in past elections.

Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse

  • David Ballantine – Alliance for Democracy and Freedom
  • Alexandra Herdman – Conservative and Unionist Party
  • Alex Kerr – Scottish National Party (SNP)
  • John McNamee – Reform UK
  • Davy Russell – Labour Party
  • Michael John Weatherhead – Liberal Democrats

Davy Russell of Labour narrowly took the seat in a surprise by-election victory last year (after the death of Christina McKelvie), with Reform a close third. Another three-way scrap looms.

Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley

  • James Adams – Conservative and Unionist Party
  • Alan Brown – Scottish National Party (SNP)
  • Michael Gregori – Liberal Democrats
  • Ewan Macphee – Labour Party
  • Garry Campbell McClay – Alliance to Liberate Scotland
  • Anne Millar – Reform UK

Willie Coffey held his seat with a 10,000 majority at the last election, so the SNP should be safe.

Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale

  • Keith Cockburn – Conservative and Unionist Party
  • Daniel Coleman – Labour Party
  • Duncan Angus Melville Dunlop – Liberal Democrats
  • Carolyn Grant – Reform UK
  • Calum Kerr – Scottish National Party (SNP)

Another seat which is losing its long-time MSP. Christine Graeme is off, but this should remain in SNP hands.


List votes top up the constituency votes. Candidates from political parties are ordered, so if you vote for a party on the list, it’s useful to know who the top candidates are.

Conservatives: List seats for the Conservatives will really depend on how many seats they can hold onto or win back. In the last session they held three constituency seats and three list seats. The rise of Reform may rob them of list seats. As the top three may well keep their seats, we have gone further down the list. Both Dowey and Whittle served in the last session.

  1. Rachael Hamilton
  2. Craig Hoy
  3. Finlay Carson
  4. Sharon Dowey
  5. Brian Whittle

Labour: 2-3 seats although they could do better on the list this time. Thankfully, her place on the list means that Carol Mochan should return

  1. Carol Ann Mochan
  2. Joe Fagan
  3. Linda Jane Dorward

Reform: 2 seats

  1. Jamie Alexander Langan
  2. David Kirkwood
  3. Senga Beresford

Liberal Democrats: 1 seat would be a result for the Lib Dems who haven’t featured on the list since the 2011 election.

  1. Duncan Angus Melville Dunlop
  2. Ray Georgeson
  3. Aisha Jawaid Mir

SNP: 0 seats. One of the only 2 SNP list seats in the last session was won by Emma Harper in the region. McAllan and Brown are well placed to take their seats, so her best hope may, ironically, be if 4th placed Siobhian Brown loses her constituency to the Conservatives or if the Greens poll lower than anticipated. However, with falls in support for the SNP, that still might not be enough. Harper was complicit in the plot to stitch up Joan McAlpine who previously held the list place. Neither Harper nor Brown would be missed.

  1. Mairi McAllan
  2. Alan Brown
  3. Emma Harper
  4. Siobhian Brown

Greens: 1 seat. The Greens have only once held a list spot in the region, way back in 2003-2007. 

  1. Laura Moodie
  2. Ann McGuinness
  3. Dominic Ashmole

Other List Parties:

  • Alliance to Liberate Scotland
  • Independent Green Voice
  • Scottish Alliance for Democracy and Freedom
  • Scottish Common Party
  • Scottish Family Party
  • Scottish Heritage Party
  • Scottish Libertarian Party
  • Scottish Socialist Party
  • UK Independence Party (UKIP)

Independent:

  • Denise Sommerville
  • Sean Davis